In late January 2026, China's manganese sulphate market exhibited a triple pattern of "soaring costs, tight supply, and robust demand," coupled with the release of concentrated stockpiling demand from downstream sectors ahead of the Chinese New Year. Spot market resources remained persistently tight, order schedules were congested, and industry-wide expectations pointed to a new round of substantial price increases in the near term.

Cost Side Multiple Pressures Converge, Producer Costs Rise Significantly

Currently, manganese sulphate producers are facing comprehensive cost pressures, with upstream raw material prices fluctuating at highs and rising environmental protection costs creating a dual squeeze. Profit margins continue to narrow, and the willingness to hold prices firm is extremely strong.

Sulphuric acid, a core raw material for manganese sulphate production, has seen prices surge continuously recently, becoming the main driver of cost increases. Sulfur, as a globally priced commodity, affected by Middle East geopolitical tensions and predatory consumption from Indonesian nickel smelting projects, saw its price exceed 4,300 yuan/mt in January 2026, hitting a nearly two-year high. This directly led to losses for sulphuric acid producers using sulfur, forcing some plants to undergo maintenance and cut production, further tightening supply in the sulphuric acid market and transmitting significant cost increases to the manganese sulphate production stage.

Manganese ore prices fluctuating at highs further exacerbate cost pressures. Currently, the domestic manganese ore market features "low inventory and structural divergence," with cargo ownership concentrated in the hands of a few traders. The tight pattern supports ongoing rises in overseas market offers, with Gabonese lumps exceeding $4.9/mtu, and domestic spot prices following suit, directly boosting raw material procurement costs for manganese sulphate.

Against the backdrop of tightening environmental protection policies, rising manganese residue treatment costs have become an additional pressure point. As environmental supervision intensifies across regions, manganese residue generated during manganese sulphate production must undergo compliant treatment before discharge. Upgrades in treatment processes and rising disposal fees further increase producers' overall costs. Some small and medium-sized enterprises, unable to bear the cost pressure, are forced to lower operating rates, indirectly reducing market supply.

Supply-Demand Pattern Remains Tight, Pre-Holiday Stockpiling Intensifies Market Tension

With the Chinese New Year approaching, concentrated stockpiling demand from downstream sectors is being significantly released, serving as the core driver boosting the market upward. The increasing share of high-nickel ternary cathode material routes within the new energy vehicle industry chain, along with higher unit consumption, has led to heightened recent purchasing activity to meet post-holiday production needs, further intensifying the supply-demand imbalance. The market currently shows a situation of "scarce orders and limited spot availability." Some downstream enterprises, to secure supply, have to accept price increases, pushing market prices steadily higher.

Market Outlook: Multiple Positive Factors Support Strong Expectations for Substantial Price Increases

In summary, the manganese sulphate market is currently in a phase where strengthening cost support and expanding downstream demand resonate. In the short term, internal and external positive factors are unlikely to dissipate, and expectations for substantial price increases in the near term remain strong.

The price of battery-grade manganese sulphate is expected to break through the 7,000 yuan/mt mark in the short term, with the potential for more significant increases in the future. Downstream enterprises are advised to reasonably plan their procurement pace and secure supply sources in advance to mitigate price fluctuation risks, while upstream enterprises should closely monitor changes in raw material supply and environmental protection policies, optimizing production layouts to seize market opportunities.